weekly roundup – Tip of the Spear
BTC bulls managed to make it over the crucial $7400 resistance line, but were then halted in their tracks by resistance and a downtrend. The market has been trading sideways since, pushing us right into the tip of the triangles on each crypto.
A resolution to this impasse is imminent this week, bears currently have a slight advantage on multiple currencies’ charts.
Bitcoin
The advance from $7400 was halted by a team effort from the dotted pink downtrend and the dotted red resistance line.
The action has traded sideways since, although with a slightly bullish bias (ascending triangle, more visible on intraday charts), but just above this sideways trading we have the 200 day moving average (in red here) which will be extremely tough to get past without a ton of momentum. As for that…
Our momentum oscillator MACD (lower oscillator under the main chart) has just crossed bearish, implying we’re moving onto a downward swing again.
If you scan back to the last time we touched the dotted pink downtrend (in May) and look at the similar MACD bear cross there, you can see that bulls managed to push price a touch higher after the cross before we saw lower prices. This is actually not unusual for MACD bear crosses, which even intraday often tend to precede a little push upwards before prices drop.
So, very short term bulls aren’t quite out of energy, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to breach all that resistance above, and with MACD turning over, probability lies with a bearish conclusion here.
Ethereum
Meanwhile Ethereum is showing just how close to a decision we are – pushing right into the tip of the apex. It’s not managed to make it over the 50 day moving average (blue here), so while the decision hasn’t been made yet, this chart has a bearish tilt probability-wise.
Litecoin
A similar story with Litecoin, rejecting the 50 day moving average and pushing into the tip of its apex. No decision yet but MACD turning bearish as with BTC so bulls will struggle to win this tug-of-war I fear.
Ripple
XRP hasn’t followed through with the promise of the breakout from the purple downtrend, instead tracing the support/resistance line sideways all week with a suite of small inverted hammers and spinning tops. Indecision simply, but with RSI struggling to even get up to the midline, it’s hard to see where the momentum needed to get over the 50 day MA (blue) would come from here. Bearish tilt again.
DISCLAIMER
BCB Group has no position or opinion on the price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency and this article should not be construed as analysis of or advice regarding the current or future market price of Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. No analysis of the price movements of BTC or any other cryptocurrency or any other asset provided by BCB Group should be construed as an invitation or inducement to buy, sell or otherwise to trade BTC or any other cryptocurrency.
Jon is MD of British music production company Poseidon. He began studying technical analysis in 2000 for use in managing his own investments and due to its overlap with behavioural economics – much used in Poseidon’s international marketing work. This has seen the company achieve three iTunes US number one albums in as many years among other notable successes.
A Bitcoin investor since 2013, Jon and has been providing Technical Analysis (TA) commentary for a private community of Cryptocurrency investors since mid 2017.
